With the NFL Draft kicking off just a few hours from now, let’s compare some of the possible 1st Round QB’s to those QB’s of the past and present. For these young men, their lives will change forever tonight (or tomorrow, or this weekend, should they slide down the draft board), but will they live up to the hype?
Caleb Williams – Patrick Mahomes
If you told me a year from now that Caleb Williams was the Rookie of the Year and on his way to being the best player in the league, I wouldn’t be surprised. If you told me 4 years from now that all of the draft hype was completely wrong and Caleb isn’t nearly as good as expected, has drama surrounding him, and is on his way to being out of the league within the next few seasons… I also, would not be surprised. I think in recent memory, most of the time I can look at a player and be certain their career is going one way or the other, however with Williams, I truly have no idea. “Sure fire”, “can’t miss” prospects have come throughout the years, and do they always pan out? Rarely. Caleb Williams being a Trojan is tough for me, because it makes me want to say he is going to be a Hall of Famer, up there with the greats – but in reality I truly have no idea which way his career is going to go.
With that said, the film speaks for itself, and he is similar to Patrick Mahomes in more ways than not. Caleb missed some throws this past season that he made during his Heisman campaign, however with the pressure of being the #1 pick and “the guy” in Chicago, we could very well see that super star come out again.
Jayden Daniels – Vince Young
Vince Young was a star in college, rookie of the year in the NFL, and two time Pro-bowler. However, he was average on his best days in the NFL. Which is where I see the career of LSU’s Jayden Daniels heading. Daniels was all but average during his time at Arizona State before transferring to LSU. When he landed at LSU, he had 5-stars and talent all around him across the board. Granted, he performed to a Heisman caliber level and carried his horrible defense during his last year in Baton Rogue, but similar to Vince Young, he is going to be entering a situation in Washington or New England (2nd or 3rd overall picks), where he isn’t going to have the same weapons he had in college, and he isn’t going to have the success he did there. Daniels will have a 10-year career just like Young did, and similar to Young will have minimal success, all of which will come toward the beginning of his career should it come.
Drake Maye – Justin Herbert
Quiet. Goes about his business. No scandals. No media coverage. Just a QB who does his job. Has the ability to run when needed with deceptive speed. Has great arm talent (although Herbert has more strength, Drake can make all the throws). I’ve said for multiple years now that Drake Maye is going to be a phenomenal NFL QB, and possibly the best pick in his class (until I realized Caleb was going to be in the same class as him). He can make all the throws, he can pick up first downs when needed but isn’t reliant on his feet, and has high football IQ. Going to a team like the Patriots (#3 pick) will be a struggle for him initially, being that he will have first time – defensive minded – head coach, with minimal weapons, but he will be able to overcome and perform just like many QB’s who have been drafted into bad situations have.
JJ McCarthy – Zach Wilson
JJ McCarthy is not going to be a good NFL QB. Plain and simple. We saw this with Zach Wilson coming out of college… a QB who had insane arm strength, shined during their pro day, and then…well…we saw what happened with Wilson. Granted, McCarthy had success on the field with Michigan winning the National Championship – which was not because of him. McCarthy is this years player that flies up the mock draft boards and gets all the hype, there is a player yearly that it happens to. AND IT MAKES NO SENSE. McCarthy will add his name to the list of first round QB picks who don’t pick up a second contract with the team he is selected by. The Vikings are linked to McCarthy the most it seems in the media, and they could go down as one of the worst trades should they end up trading up to draft him.
Bubble & Unlikely First Rounders:
Michael Penix Jr. – Tua Tagovailoa (but more Brandon Weeden)
Bo Nix – Russel Wilson
We will see tonight where they will spend the first few seasons of their career – possibly their entire careers – but only time will tell the accuracy of the pre-draft comparisons and mock drafts.
Happy Draft Day!
Till Next Time,
Trevor
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