In the last 10 seasons, only two of the preseason Heisman betting favorite has won the award – Marcus Mariota in 2014 and Bryce Young in 2021. Joe Burrow was 10th in preseason odds, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels were 5th, and Caleb Williams was 3rd, just to give you an idea of how wide open the Heisman race is every year.
This years preseason odds are as follows: (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Dillion Gabriel (Oregon) +600
- Carson Beck (Georiga) +800
- Quinn Ewers (Texas) +1200
- Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) +1400
- Jalen Milroe (Alabama) +1400
- Will Howard (Ohio State) +1500
- Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee) +1500
- Cam Ward (Miami FL) +1500
- Riley Leonard (Notre Dame) +2200
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) +2200
Dillion Gabriel began the offseason in the top 5, and has slowly worked his way up to the top spot, and for good reason. He is a better passer than Bo Nix was in Dan Lannings offense, and we saw what Bo did last year. He has the ability to run when needed, not as good as Nix, but still he has the ability to pick up yards with his feet when need be. Entering his 6th season in college football, at his 3rd school, having played in 50 college football games to this point, he is right on the Bo Nix path of playing WAY more college football than any player dreams of playing.
Carson Beck is coming off a 13-1 season in which he was 8th in passing yards, but his downside to being the Heisman is his lack of running ability. He is a pocket passer who only rushed for 116 yards last season. Granted, Gabriel only rushed for a 373, he had 12 TD’s compared to Beck’s 4. Bryce Young and Joe Burrow are the only two pocket passers to bring home the award in recent memory. If Beck puts up big passing numbers again and carries the Dawgs to another undefeated season, he can count himself in as a Finalist in New York.
Steve Sarkisian has coached Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and Devonta Smith during their Heisman runs. He also coached Jake Locker, Mac Jones, and Tua Tagovailoa who had successful college careers. Now, he is on to Quinn Ewers. Ewers comes into the season as one of the faces of college football, coming off of a season that saw him finish in top 10 in multiple major categories in the passing game. This will be his 3rd season in Sark’s offense, where it all comes together. His biggest downside is the same thing that Beck will have to overcome – a lack of run game. Ewers rushed for 75 yards last season. The last QB to win the Heisman while rushing for less than 100 yards in the season was Sam Bradford in 2008…
Trevor’s Picks:
Winner – Dillion Gabriel (Oregon)
I’m going with the favorite to win it. I just don’t see how he comes into Dan Lanning’s offense and doesn’t produce similar to Bo Nix, if not better. Bo Nix would have won the Heisman last year if not for Jayden Daniels dominating in the run game. Dillion Gabriel has all the makings to come in as the favorite and end up as the winner.
Underdog – Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee)
Nico was a 5-star coming out of high school, so we know he has the tools – granted, not every 5-star lives up to the hype – but we know he can play because we’ve seen it. Nico started the Vols bowl game last season where he was responsible for 4 touchdowns in a routing of Iowa, who is known for their steel curtain-esque defense. Granted, bowl games now are not a true sign of greatness with players opting out (hence why Iamaleava started with Joe Milton opting out of the game), but in the small sample size throughout the regular season as well, he looked like he could hold his own.
Long Shot – Miller Moss (USC)
As a Trojan fan, this can be called a bias pick, however let’s take the Trojan fandom out of me for a second. Shane Carden will be who we start with. Unless you are a die-hard college football fan (and probably not even then) you’ve never heard of Shane Carden. He finished 2nd in passing yards in 2014, and threw for 86 TD’s in his career. Then we move onto Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, back to back Heisman winners from Oklahoma. Next, Jalen Hurts, who would have won the 2019 Heisman if Joe Burrow didn’t put up the greatest season by a college quarterback in history. We don’t need to talk about the #1 pick in this years draft and Heisman trophy winner Caleb Williams, but I’ll mention him.
What do all of these players have in common?
Lincoln Riley. It’s the obvious answer. Lincoln alone is enough to make you consider sprinkling something on Miller Moss for Heisman (currently in a 5-way tie for 9th in odds).
Till Next Time,
Trevor
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