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Happy Friday,

Welcome to Weekend Picks, where I give you my favorite picks for the weekend of football that is upon us. Now, I am by no means a gambling expert, and don’t claim to be, but these are the best bets of the weekend in my opinion. Some picks will be a mix of NFL and College games, play at your own risk!

USC Trojans –6

For the second week in a row, we start Weekend Pick$ off with the USC Trojans. Last weeks absolute lock of -11.5 was easily covered when the Trojans hosted the Fresno State Bulldogs and beat them by 28 in the Coliseum. This week the Trojans head to Corvalis to take on the 3-0 Oregon State Beavers. Now, 3-0 is impressive, however 1 win came against FCS opponent Montana State, while another came against a struggling Boise State team… but the win we look at here is the 35-32 victory over Fresno State, who I just talked about USC beating by 28. Oregon State usually plays the Trojans hard, however half of the Trojans team is new this season via transfer and they do not know the history of who plays them tough, they are all just here to win. -6 against an inferior opponent again seems to be yet another steal.

Also, Vegas doesn’t lose. The public does (see below)

Michigan Wolverines -17

Go Big Blue! The Wolverines currently have the 3rd rated defense in regards to yards allowed and 4th in points allowed. Granted… UCONN, Hawaii, and Colorado State are not amongst the most reputable opponents, but none the less the Michigan defense is showing out even after losing 2-1st rounders and a 2nd rounder (should have been 1st if not injured). Their offense is also clicking against inferior opponents, having the second most points this season. Maryland is in the inferior opponent category, with many calling for them to be a team to leave the B1G when USC and UCLA join. However, Tua’s little brother, Taulia Tagovailoa is a significantly better signal caller than Hawaii, UCONN, and Colorado State’s… Michigan is still the superior team across the board.

Since joining the B1G in 2014, Maryland beat Michigan year 1 which was a year before Harbaugh arrived in Ann Arbor. Since the Harbaugh era began in 2015, the Wolverines have handled the Terps: 28-0, 59-3 (woah), 35-10, 42-21, 38-7, and 59-18. Every game has eaisly covered this years spread of -17, and I don’t see anything stopping the Wolverines streak.

Chiefs -5.5 & Patrick Mahomes o2.5 TDs

The Colts are bad. Which is weird, but they just are. Matt Ryan is showing his age in his struggles, their offensive line which is one of the best in the league is not performing, and in turn Jonathan Taylor can only do so much to carry the offense.

The Chiefs are out to prove to everyone they don’t need Tyreek to be successful, and while the Bills may be good – they are trying to prove they are still the best team in the league. Mahomes is all the sudden second fiddle to Allen and Herbert, when in reality he is still arguably the best QB in the game. I have a feeling the Colts will put up a decent fight at home against the Chiefs, but Mahomes carries them to a victory by 6+ points. In his career vs. teams he has only played 2 times (this will be the second game vs. Indianapolis), Mahomes is 11-5, with 44 TD’s to 7 INTs. He will easily throw for 3 TD’s in this game as well. I love him o2.5 TD passes at plus money (currently +104 odds).

Texans/Bears under 40.5

Never in a million years would I expect to choose the under of 40 points in an NFL game, but these two horrible offenses going against decent defense’s is too much to handle. Both teams have scored 14.5 points in their first two games, while allowing 18/18.5 points in their matchups. Should they both give up 18 points, that is still 36 total and below the 40.5 line. I just don’t see Justin Fields (who is averaging 95.5 yards in the first two games, granted a complete down pour in one) or Davis Mills doing anything out of the ordinary for either this week, specifically Mills against the Bears defense who has given up an average of 199 passing yards in their first two contests.

Life’s too short to bet the under, but here it seems like you have to.

Again, I am not an expert and these are just my suggestions and bets I like this week in football. Play at your own risk, and as always – gamble responsibly!

Till Next Time,
Trevor