MLB Free Agency has began with a couple of players already signing or resigning with their current teams. There are multiple high profile free agents this year, just like most years, with the leader of the pack being Juan Soto. The 26-year-old is a rare example of a bonafide super star entering free agency at a young age, where other stars like Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes are free agents in their 30’s. Various other high-profile players like Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman are on the market as well. Where will they sign, will they don a new uniform or return to their club from last year?
Top Free Agent Predictions:
Juan Soto
Top 3: Yankees, Mets, Dodger
Others: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Every MLB Team
The 26-year-old super star has played for 3 franchises in his young career, winning a World Series with the Nationals and returning to another with the Yankees, while spending some time in San Diego in between. He is expected to sign a deal well north of $500 million over 10ish years. He has been tied to both New York teams for the last year, with the Mets rumors flying more than any other team during that time, however don’t be surprised if the Dodgers make a push to add to their billions in payroll.
Prediction: New York Mets
Sleeper: Washington Nationals
Blake Snell
Top 3: Padres, Giants, Mets
Others: Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers
Blake Snell is a free agent for the second time in as many years. Last year the sweepstakes came to a close late in the free agent cycle when he signed a 1 year deal with a second year player option with Giants. After the season in San Fran, he decided to opt out of the deal (to no one’s surprise) and test the market again. The two-time Cy Young winner is coming off another outstanding season where he made 20 starts with an ERA of 3.12 and 12.5 K/9, the highest of his career.
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Sleeper: Los Angeles Angels
Corbin Burnes
Top 3: Orioles, Mets, Red Sox
Others: Rangers, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres
The former Cy Young winner Burnes was dealt from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Baltimore Orioles prior to the season. Burnes didn’t miss a beat in his transition with a new team, posting a 2.92 ERA over 194 innings, He saw a slight regression in his K-rate which as dropped each season since his CY year in 2021. The 4-time all-star will be a free agent for the first time in his career, and being 30-years-old, he should be looking at a deal that will set up his family for generation.
Prediction: Red Sox
Sleeper: Padres (not a sleeper, but not the favorites to land him)
Alex Bregman
Top 3: Mariners, Astros, Yankees
Others: Tigers, Blue Jays
Once upon a time, Alex Bregman would have been the #1 player on the list of players teams were knocking on the door of this offseason. Unfortunately for the 30-year-old, his numbers have fallen from the years of Cheating Scandals in Houston. During his age-25 season, he had 41 HR’s and 8.9 war, finishing second in MVP race. His age 24 and 25 seasons combined for a 16.8 WAR, which is the same as the 5 seasons combined… I’m not sure what kind of deal Bregman will get, being that the last two seasons he has started to get back on the right track and back into his old form, but no where near what he was early in his career.
Prediction: New York Yankees
Sleeper: New York Mets
Max Fried
Top 3: Dodgers, Braves, Mets
Others: Red Sox, Giants, Cubs
Max Fried is an Ace when he is healthy and his stuff is on. The two-time all-star has two-top 5 finishes in Cy Young voting as well, sporting a career 3.07 ERA. Missing time in 2023, he made 29 starts this past season with an ERA of 3.25 across 174 innings. The So Cal native could be a key target for the Dodgers who are not immune to spending big money to make big differences. With Ohtani returning to the bump, combined with Yamamoto and the countless other arms in LA, Fried would be the 3rd option… an Ace in the 3 hole.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Sleeper: Detroit Tigers
Pete Alonso
Top 3: Nationals, Mets, Yankees
Others: Mariners, Red Sox, Giants
The New York Mets are doing everything in their power to not be the little brother in terms of baseball teams in New York. They are linked to every top free agent this offseason, with their ownership stating they will be spending and making a push to get the franchise over the hump. Face of the franchise (arguably) Pete Alonso won’t be going anywhere. The fan favorite in the Queens is going to land a big contract, which unfortunately could hurt the teams ability to land two big time difference makers (Soto and Burnes for example), but I truly believe that Pete wants to be a Met and that the franchise will cave and overpay for him to stay home.
Prediction: New York Mets
Sleeper: Houston Astros
Other Free Agent Predictions:
- Willy Adames – San Francisco Giants
- Sleeper: Atlanta Braves (return to the start)
- Anthony Santander – Philadelphia Phillies
- Sleeper: Kansas City Royals
- Jack Flaherty – Boston Red Sox
- Sleeper: Detroit Tigers
- Shane Bieber – Texas Rangers
- Sleeper: Tampa Bay Rays
- Tanner Scott – New York Yankees
- Sleeper: Cincinnati Reds
- Christian Walker – New York Yankees
- Sleeper: New York Mets (if Pete Alonso leaves)
- Nathan Eovaldi – Seattle Mariners
- Sleeper: Minnesota Twins
- Teoscar Hernandez – Boston Red Sox
- Sleeper: Kansas City Royals
- Ha-Seong Kim – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Sleeper: Detroit Tigers
- Yusei Kikuchi – Los Angeles Angels
- Sleeper: Baltimore Orioles
- Gleyber Torres –Seattle Mariners
- Sleeper: Detroit Tigers
- Tyler O’neill – Toronto Blue Jays
- Sleeper: Baltimore Orioles
- Sean Manaea – New York Mets
- Sleeper: Pittsburgh Pirates
- Clay Holmes – New York Yankees
- Sleeper: Philadelphia Phillies
- Max Scherzer – Atlanta Braves
- Sleeper: Los Angeles Dodgers
- Jurickson Profar – Kansas City Royals
- Sleeper: San Francisco Giants
- Luis Severino – San Francisco Giants
- Sleeper: Baltimore Orioles
- Roki Sasaki – Los Angeles Dodgers (if he gets posted to the MLB from Nippon League)
- Sleeper: Doesn’t leave Japan
I’m excited to see where these guys land!
Till Next Time,
Trevor
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